4 Essential Football Betting Tips For Beginner Gamblers [Chapter 3]

football betting tips

The four football betting tips discussed below are essential methods that every football gambler should understand and have in their arsenal.

These are real methods for betting on real markets.

You will be able to put them into practice whatever your level of gambling skill.

The focus of the tips in this chapter is Back bets (bet on a particular outcome) and Lay bets (bet against a particular outcome), the simplest and most popular forms of betting on football.

The tips you’ll learn will help increase the probability of making winning picks.

They offer you a variety of strategies and action plans for different scenarios.

Football Betting Tip 1: Must Win Matches

This is a straightforward but very useful strategy, which you can modify in many ways.

The essential feature of this strategy is to pick a team that is under pressure.

Whatever their individual situation, this team must win their next match.

Of course, there’s no guarantee any team will win.

But the pressure to win in this situation commits a team to attacking play, and that presents a great betting opportunity.

The Method

  • Make a strong selection where odds to win are between 1.7 and 2.2, and the chosen team ideally is playing a home match.
  • Before kick-off, use the Match Odds market to BACK your team to WIN.
  • Once your team has scored ahead, you should cash out your bet.

Suitable selections can often be found in European Cup competitions among group stage final matches and second leg qualifier rounds.

Domestic league matches toward end of season also offer excellent prospects for this betting method, as teams battle for a title, for entry to European competitions, or to avoid relegation.

Note:

Always insist on making a pre-match analysis before placing a bet.

Look for alternative opinions that may differ from your point of view.

Though you may think deep analysis is unnecessary, making the effort can mean the difference between gaining consistent profits or making losses over the medium to long term.

For best advice on analyzing a football match, visit chapters 1, 2, and 13 for data on:

  • Previews
  • Recent form
  • Streaks
  • Injuries
  • Team morale
  • Club atmosphere, and much more.

Example Approach 1: 2nd Ties In European Cups

The example match described below between Ajax and F.C. Copenhagen (FCK) is taken from the Europa League.

football betting tips 1

Match preview

This was a last chance game, the second tie between these two teams for the prize of reaching the quarter finals of the Europa League.

If Ajax lost this match their challenge would be over.

But for FCK, a draw would be sufficient to get them through to their first ever Europa quarter finals.

That describes the incentive for both teams.

But it’s not enough information on which to place a bet.

Here are some more factors due consideration before making a selection.

Ajax Recent Form: Positive factors

football betting tips 2

+ Ajax had so far won all their Europa League home matches.

+ Ajax scored at least once in all their Europa matches.

+ Ajax scored first in all their Europa home matches.

+ Ajax were top in their Europa League group.

Ajax Recent Form: Negative factors

The only Europa League match Ajax had presently lost in the season was a first leg game against none other than F.C. Copenhagen.

F.C. Copenhagen Recent Form: Positive factors

football betting tips 3

+ Winner of 4 out of 6 recent matches across all competitions.

+ Lost only one match in 15 games played in the Europa League and Champions League.

+ Showed good form in the Champions League at just 3 points adrift from the qualifying rounds.

F.C. Copenhagen Recent Form: Negative factors

Failed to gain wins in 7 of their 15 games in the Europa League and Champions League.

Recent form aside, the top Danish league in which FCK play is less competitive than the Dutch Ajax league.

So it looked like Ajax were in good form and were scoring goals.

This is certainly something that you want to see in a comparison.

Head-to-Head Stats

Last meeting between the teams: 8th finals first tie of the Europa League (09/03/17).

Result: F.C. Copenhagen 2-1 Ajax

football betting tips 4

Ajax played well in this away game but failed to even make the draw.

At half time the score was balanced at 1-1, but later FCK took advantage to score again and win the match.

However, the stats show that Ajax had greater possession, corners, and shots.

football betting tips 5

Overall, their performance was impressive and they were unlucky to have lost the game.

This review suggests a positive analysis for Ajax in the upcoming match.

Action

Enter the Match Odds market for this game and BACK Ajax for 3/5 of your stake.

So, if your total stake for this match is €50, then BACKING Ajax to win gives a stake of €30.

Note:

Keeping 2/5 of the stake in reserve allows other options to be followed later, for example, if the half time score is level or FCK gain the lead.

BACK Ajax at 1.81 for €30 stake (liability €30)

football betting tips 6

Possible Scenarios
  • If Ajax take the lead, cash out for a guaranteed profit
  • If Ajax take the lead, let the match bet run for potential winning profits
  • If HT score is 0-0, back Ajax with remaining €20 and cash out after an Ajax goal
  • If FCK take a lead, BACK Ajax with €20 stake at higher odds and cash out when Ajax equalize
  • If Ajax just aren’t scoring, cash out and take the loss

There can be plenty of other scenarios to affect your bets, such as injuries, red cards, etc.

It´s sensible to prepare for various possibilities so that when they happen you’ll have an idea how to react.

Cash out example

Ajax took the lead after 23 minutes of the match.

football betting tips 7

This meant the odds on Ajax winning dropped from 1.81 to around 1.25, which can be immediately turned into profit.

Cashing out the bet on Ajax guarantees over €10 profit (minus commission).

That is about half the profit from an Ajax win if the bet was allowed to run.

Instead of an uncertain €21.60, €10 profit is guaranteed, whatever the final result.

Taking profits when available is the real upside of this betting method.

Ajax did go on to win the match 2-0.

But this only confirms that selecting Ajax for a confident profit from this match was a correct choice.

Example approach 2: Vital league clashes – Final match for La Liga title

football betting tips 13

Match Preview

This example features the most celebrated football rivalry match in the world, El Clásico between Real Madrid and F.C. Barcelona.

Real Madrid began slight favourites because victory would secure the title in La Liga.

They had also confidently just qualified for the semi-finals of the Champions League.

For Barcelona, this match was a final chance for the Liga title.

But their own recent ejection from the Champions League contest at the feet of Juventus was a blow to their morale.   

Real Madrid recent form: Positive (+) key factors:

football betting tips 8

+ Real Madrid won 4 of their previous 6 home matches in La Liga

+ Real Madrid were unbeaten in their previous 21 home Liga matches

+ Real Madrid scored in each of their previous 43 Liga matches

+ Real Madrid scored first in 5 of their 6 previous home matches

Real Madrid recent form: Negative (-) key factors:

Real Madrid ended with 2 draws in their previous 6 home matches

Real Madrid conceded 1 goal or more in 3 of their 6 previous home matches

Barça recent form: Positive (+) key factors:

football betting tips 9

+ Barça won 4 of their previous 6 matches in La Liga

+ Barça scored 1 goal or more in 5 of their 6 previous home matches in La Liga

+ Lionel Messi led the player goal-scoring points in La Liga for the season (17 pts from 29 goals)

Barça recent form: Negative (-) key factors:

Barça failed to win 3 of their previous 4 competitive matches

Barça conceded 1 goal or more in 5 of their 6 previous La Liga matches

Head-to-Head Stats key factors:

football betting tips 10

 

  • Real Madrid have beaten Barça more often than any other club in La Liga history (72 times); Barça have beaten Real Madrid more often than any other team (68 times)
  • Real Madrid lost only 2 El Clásico matches in the last 6 at home (3Wins 1 Draw – all competitions)
  • Barça scored in all their last 22 games of all kinds against Real Madrid, the best run in El Clásico history
Action

In the Match Odds market BACK Real Madrid for 3/5 of your stake.

So, with a total stake for the match of €50, BACK Real Madrid to win with a €30 stake.

BACK Real Madrid at 1.97 for €30 stake (liability €30)

football betting tips 11

Possible Scenarios
  • Real Madrid take a lead, cash out for a guaranteed profit.
  • Real Madrid take a lead, let the match bet run for potential winning profits
  • HT score of 0-0, add backing for Real Madrid with remaining €20 stake and cash out once Real score
  • Barça take a lead, BACK Real Madrid at higher odds with remaining €20 stake and cash out once Real equalize
  • Real Madrid not fighting or scoring, cash out and take the loss
Cash out

In this game, after 28 minutes Real Madrid took the lead.

football betting tips 12

The odds for a Real Madrid win fell from 1.97 to around 1.40, and this differential became profit of over €10 (minus commission) by cashing out the BACK bet on Real Madrid.

The final score was 2-3 to Barcelona!

While pre-match analysis indicated Real Madrid had the better recent form, football is an unpredictable game.

This is why the “cash out” tool is so important.

As soon as you see the opportunity for profit, you should take it, even in the first minutes of a game.

Yes, you might win more if you delay.

But you could also lose your stake – and your profit.

Take profits whenever they appear – don’t fall prey to greed!

Advantages

  • This strategy is suitable for many scenarios and stages in a match and is easily modified to meet events.
  • It can be used during a match when scores stand at a draw and winning a goal is more important for one team than for their opponents.
  • Using this method to bet during the second half can be especially profitable. A goal scored in the later stages of a match will produce significant odds movement and enable you to cash out at very low odds (view graph). Or if you choose to let your back bet run you can benefit from a large odds win.
  • Cashing out at lower odds is a simple profit move. It’s easy to do via smartphone wherever you are – on the move or watching in the stadium.
  • Any event that significantly changes the odds – such as an opponent player being sent off – presents you with a profit opportunity.
  • You have the added option of splitting your stake between pre-match and in-play (perhaps 3/5 and 2/5 or 1/2 and 1/2).
  • The ‘must win’ match betting strategy can offer many profit opportunities each week.

Dangers

  • Don’t be careless with your selections. Always conduct in-depth match analysis before making a choice.
  • Don’t place your bets without good reason.
  • Don’t select short-priced teams before the game. Early goals move odds even lower and leave little profit for your stake.
  • Don’t forget your bank management rules. Always place normal stakes, even when tempted by a strong selection, because you can never really predict a game.
  • Don’t forget that aiming for a high strike rate of wins is good, but your profit will depend on the odds.
  • Don’t believe you can predict upcoming goals in every match. Back teams in-play that are at above even odds.
  • Remember, there will always be plenty of “must win” matches. They won’t all work out as predicted, but experiencing some failures doesn’t mean you won’t have many more chances.

Conclusion

The advantage of the Must Win strategy is that you can apply it in many different match situations and stages in a match.

It is just one strategy for finding teams that can give your betting an edge.

Once you have tried this method yourself you can adapt it to suit your needs.

Novices to live football betting will find this method ideal for getting started with in-play betting.

Football Betting Tip 2: Lay the Draw

This is another very simple strategy that can be applied in many situations.

It is appropriate for both pre-match bets and betting in-play (better odds).

Here’s the first of two approaches:

Example approach 1: Lay the draw before the match starts

Laying the Draw is one of the most well-known and widely used football betting methods on Betfair.

To Lay the Draw just means to bet against a draw happening.

You will find laying the draw available at Betfair betting exchange markets (check out the betting odds guide for calculating your liabilities).

The other way to achieve the same thing is to place a double chance bet with a traditional bookmaker, which means betting on both teams to win.

Selecting the right matches requires identifying certain patterns if you want to be successful in the long term.

Below are some factors to look out for that can help you win by laying the draw.

Head-to-Head History

Looking up the history of how two teams performed in previous meetings will give you a pointer.

Some teams just don’t play for a draw.

The tables below list rival matches from the top leagues that produced the least number of drawn games.

Best rival matches to “Lay the Draw” in the English Premier League 2017/2018
HOME-AWAYHOME-AWAY% (Nº) DRAWSLAST MATCHES
Crystal Palace Manchester City0% (0)15
Crystal Palace Southampton0% (0)14
Leicester Swansea0% (0)11
Crystal Palace Chelsea0% (0)11
Liverpool Watford0% (0)10
Liverpool Stoke7% (1)14
West Bromwich Albion Manchester City7% (1)14
Watford Leicester7% (1)14
Arsenal West Bromwich Albion7% (1)14
Chelsea Leicester7% (1)14
Chelsea Everton7% (1)14
Crystal Palace Liverpool7% (1)14
Southampton Tottenham7% (1)14
West Bromwich Albion Swansea7% (1)14
Bournemouth Southampton10% (1)10
Best rival matches to “Lay the Draw” in the English Championship 2017/2018
HOME-AWAYHOME-AWAY% (Nº) DRAWSLAST MATCHES
Reading Aston Villa0% (0)10
ReadingBristol City7% (1)14
CardiffWolverhampton Wonderers7% (1)14
BarnsleyQueens Park Rangers7% (1)14
DerbyAston Villa9% (1)11
Bristol CityLeeds10% (1)10
Best rival matches to “Lay the Draw” in the Spanish La Liga 2017/2018
HOME-AWAYHOME-AWAY% (Nº) DRAWS LAST MATCHES
Real MadridCelta de Vigo6% (1)16
BilbaoBarcelona6% (1)16
SevillaEspanyol7% (1)14
Real SociedadReal Madrid7% (1)14
Celta de VigoBarcelona7% (1)14
Real BetisReal Madrid7% (1)14
Real MadridBilbao7% (1)14
Real SociedadAtletico de Madrid7% (1)14
SevillaBarcelona7% (1)14
Real SociedadValencia7% (1)14
Real MadridDeportivo7% (1)14
BarcelonaEspanyol7% (1)14
SevillaReal Madrid7% (1)14
AlavesReal Madrid8% (1)12
AlavesBetis8% (1)12
Las PalmasDeportivo8% (1)12
VillarrealAlaves 10% (1)10
Best rival matches to “Lay the Draw” in the Italian Serie A 2017/2018
HOME-AWAYHOME-AWAY% (Nº) DRAWSLAST MATCHES
GenoaRoma0% (0)14
MilanSassuolo0% (0)12
SassuoloInter0% (0)9
CagliariCrotone0% (0)8
LazioJuventus7% (1)15
JuventusAtalanta7% (1)15
InterLazio7% (1)15
RomaUdinese7% (1)14
AtalantaLazio7% (1)14
GenoaCagliari7% (1)14
NapoliChievo7% (1)14
LazioCagliari7% (1)14
InterFiorentina7% (1)14
TorinoJuventus7% (1)14
LazioFiorentina7% (1)14
UdineseInter7% (1)14
Best rival matches to “Lay the Draw” in the German Bundesliga 2017/2018
HOME-AWAYHOME-AWAY% (Nº) DRAWSLAST MATCHES
Bayern MunichWerder Bremen0% (0)14
Borussia DortmundFreiburg0% (0)14
AugsburgBayern Munich0% (0)14
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund0% (0)14
Eintracht FrankfurtBorussia Dortmund7% (1)15
Borussia DortmundBayern Munich7% (1)15
Bayern MunichWolfsburg7% (1)15
Borusia DortmundMainz 057% (1)14
Eintracht FrankfurtBayer Leverkusen7% (1)14
Bayern MunichHertha Berlin7% (1)14
Schalke 04Fc Köln7% (1)14
HamburgerBayern Munich7% (1)14
HamburgerBorussia Dortmund7% (1)14
FreiburgWolfsburg7% (1)14
HamburgerWerder Bremen7% (1)14
HamburgerAugsburg8% (1)13
Best rival matches to “Lay the Draw” in the French Ligue 1 2017/2018
HOME-AWAYHOME-AWAY% (Nº) DRAWSLAST MATCHES
LilleCaen0% (0)14
PSGDijon0% (0)6
LyonMontpellier7% (1)15
NiceMonaco7% (1)14
MarseilleMetz 7% (1)14
CaenSaint Etienne7% (1)14
MontpellierMarseille7% (1)14
PSGNantes7% (1)14
GuingampPSG7% (1)14
Best rival matches to “Lay the Draw” in the Dutch Eredivisie 2017/2018
HOME-AWAYHOME-AWAY% (Nº) DRAWSLAST MATCHES
FeyenoordExcelsior0% (0)15
PSVAZ Alkmaar0% (0)14
PSVFeyenoord0% (0)14
FeyenoordSparta Rotterdam0% (0)14
AjaxWillem II7% (1)15
FC UtrechtGroningen7% (1)15
FeyenoordADO Den Haag7% (1)15
FC UtrechtPSV7% (1)14
PEC ZwollePSV7% (1)14
FC TwenteSparta Rotterdam7% (1)14
AjaxVitesse7% (1)14
ExcelsiorRoda7% (1)14
Willem II FC Utrecht7% (1)14
HerenveenHeracles7% (1)14
GroningenADO Den Haag7% (1)14
FeienoordPEC Zwolle7% (1)14
AZ AlkmaarHeracles7% (1)14
HerenveenExcelsior7% (1)14
PEC ZwolleWillem II7% (1)14
PEC ZwolleSparta Rotterdam9% (1)11
Best rival matches to “Lay the Draw” in the Portuguese Primeira Liga 2017/2018
HOME-AWAYHOME-AWAY% (Nº) DRAWSLAST MATCHES
MaritimoBenfica0% (0)14
Sporting LisboaBraga0% (0)14
Vitoria GuimaraesBenfica6% (1)16
BenficaMoirense7% (1)15
BenficaBraga7% (1)14
BragaBelenenses7% (1)14
BenficaRio Ave7% (1)14
EstorilBraga8% (1)13
Best rival matches to “Lay the Draw” in the Russian Premier League 2017/2018
HOME-AWAYHOME-AWAY% (Nº) DRAWSLAST MATCHES
Rubin KazanUral0% (0)10
UralSt. Petersburg 0% (0)8

UralSpartak Moscow0% (0)8
Arsenal TulaCSKA Moscow0% (0)6
KrasnodarFK Akhmat (Terek Grozny)7% (1)14
Rubin KazanAnzhi Makhachkala7% (1)14
Spartak MoscowRostov7% (1)14
Spartak MoscowKrasnodar7% (1)14
KrasnodarLokomotiv Moscow8% (1)12
KrasnodarRubin Kazan8% (1)12
UralCSKA Moscow10% (1)10
UralUfa10% (1)10
Best rival matches to “Lay the Draw” in the Turkish Süper Lig 2017/2018
HOME-AWAYHOME-AWAY% (Nº) DRAWSLAST MATCHES
BursasporKayserispor 0% (0)14
FenerbahçeKarabükspor0% (0)13
KarabüksporAkhisar Belediye0% (0)8
TrabzonsporOsmanlispor7% (1)14
KasimpasaFenerbahçe7% (1)14
KonyasporFenerbahçe7% (1)14
BesiktasBursaspor7% (1)14
OsmanlisporKasimpasa10% (1)10
AkisharFenerbahçe10% (1)10
Best rival matches to “Lay the Draw” in the Belgian Jupiler League 2017/2018
HOME-AWAYHOME-AWAY% (Nº) DRAWSLAST MATCHES
Waasland-BeverenAnderlecht0% (0)12
Waasland-BeverenBruges0% (0)10
St. TruidenWaasland-Beveren0% (0)9
MouscronBruges0% (0)6
EupenGent0% (0)6
MouscronGent0% (0)6
MouscronAnderlecht0% (0)6
MouscronSporting Charleroi0% (0)6
MechelenStandard6% (1)16
St. TruidenZulte-Waregem7% (1)15
KortrijkBruges 7% (1)14
GenkMechelen7% (1)14
GentWaasland-Beveren8% (1)12
MouscronKortrijk9% (1)11
MouscronSt. Truiden10% (1)10
EupenMouscron10% (1)10
Best rival matches to “Lay the Draw” in the Ukrainian Premier League 2017/2018
HOME-AWAYHOME-AWAY% (Nº) DRAWSLAST MATCHES
Shaktar DonetskZorya Luhansk0% (0)16
Karpaty LvivShaktar Donetsk7% (1)14
Vorskla PoltavaShaktar Donetsk7% (1)14
Best rival matches to “Lay the Draw” in the Polish Ekstraklasa 2017/2018
HOME-AWAYHOME-AWAY% (Nº) DRAWSLAST MATCHES
Korona KielceArka Gdynia0% (0)11
Lech PoznanJagiellonia Bialystok7% (1)15
Zaglebie LubinWisla Plock7% (1)15
Pogon SzczecinLegia Warsawa7% (1)15
Lech PoznanPiast Gliwice7% (1)14
Zaglebie LubinLechia Gdansk7% (1)14
Termalica NiecieczaArka Gdynia10% (1)10
Best rival matches to “Lay the Draw” in the Swiss Super League 2017/2018
HOME-AWAYHOME-AWAY% (Nº) DRAWSLAST MATCHES
LuganoSion0% (0)16
Basel Luzern0% (0)15
Lausanne SportBasel 6% (1)16

A good bet would be to choose matches that have produced no more than 10% of draws.

Consider the record of Crystal palace and Manchester City, for example.

If you’d laid the draw in the last 15 matches between this pair then your bets would have won 15 times!

Vital League Clashes

Judging the importance of a game for both teams is another way of choosing matches that qualify for this betting method.

This becomes particularly significant in the final few weeks of the season if both teams are after the same reward.

This might be a title, entry to a Championship, promotion, or avoiding relegation.

Matches like these are usually called six-pointers.

The matches between Barça and Sevilla are a prime example.

Both teams have regularly fought each other to reach the top four of the Champions League.

All encounters between them are battled to the final whistle, with neither willingly accepting a draw.

Lay the draw head to head

All Equal

International tournaments and European Cups are also a good source for selecting ‘no draw’ matches.

Group stages that leave at least three teams with equal points after their return matches force teams to go for a win.

A draw is not sufficient, as only a win can lead to the final.

Advice:

When trying to lay the draw before a match you can encounter exceptionally high odds.

So it’s best to set a maximum odds limit of 4.00 to avoid excessive loss liabilities.

But wait, there´s more!

If laying the draw is your style of betting, there’s even more excitement to be had on the in-play market with ”Lay the Draw at 60 minutes”.

This betting opportunity at Betfair enables you to cash out for profit once a first goal is scored.

Note in advance that there can be situations that complicate this market.

For example, if a first goal is scored against the favourite team there will be an expectation for the favourites to at least equalize.

So odds against the draw won’t rise to give a reasonable profit.

And they can even fall for a small loss when cashing out.

That aside, here’s all you need to know about this in-play method…

Example approach 2: Lay the draw when 0-0 at 60 minutes.

This Lay the Draw method differs considerably from the pre-match approach.

Even if you prefer to lay the draw at odds that are near to even (2.0), this method can be both more profitable and easier than pre-match betting.

The Method

  • Select matches in real time that stand 0-0 at about the 60th minute
  • Lay the Draw at odds between 1.90 and 2.80
  • As soon as a team scores you can cash out for profit – or allow the bet to run

Rationale

Statistics show that most goals are scored in the final 30 minutes of a football match, plus the extra injury time.

You can see this pattern in top European league stats from the 2016/17 season shown below.

Premier League

Premier League goal timing

La Liga

La Liga goal timing

Bundesliga 

Bundesliga goal timing

Serie A

Serie A goal timing

Similar results would be found for most other leagues.

Why the late goal scoring?

There are several reasons for late goals.

Injury time at the end of a match creates additional time that encourages last minute goal attempts.

It may be more important for one team to save a point by scoring a late equalizer, or either team may be determined to capture three late winning points for themselves.

When teams throw everything at achieving a late goal, they also weaken their defence and leave themselves vulnerable to counter attack.

In all events, with many players sent into attack to change the final result, there is a greater chance of goals being scored.

This may either be by brute force, or by quick breaks that take advantage of an overexposed opposition goal.

Pro Tip: Predicting late goals

The graphic below is a guide to some of the best teams to consider for delivering late goals.

predicting late goals

This screenshot lists the teams that have the best record for scoring the most goals during the final 60–90 minute period and extra time.

These teams have the highest potential for scoring late winning or equalizing goals.

They also possess the performance skills to eliminate their opponents in the last minutes of a match.

Final minutes are always the danger time for a team that is one goal down, as anxiety to pull back a point can leave their defence exposed to opponents that are masters at the quick late goal technique.

Another advantage to using the laying the draw after 60 minutes approach is the available odds.

By generally laying the draw in-play at close to even odds you reduce your liability compared to laying before the match.

Also, any goal at this final stage of a match considerably increases odds for laying the draw compared to the effect of earlier first half goals.

So you can still make a small profit if cashing out, even if it is the non-favourite team that scores.

Finally, if you decide not to cash out, but let your bet run to match end, you can often be more than satisfied with an injury time goal that will return nearly 100% profit.

Analysis

This betting strategy requires selecting matches that are less likely than the average to finish in a draw.

It makes sense to avoid friendly matches, whether at club or international level, because they don’t provide the profile of teams that need to win rather than draw.

You need to look for matches in which a team needs to win to qualify for the next leg, to gain a title, to secure promotion, or to avoid demotion.

These are matches in which a draw would seem a disaster for one of the teams.

The method of laying the draw after 60 minutes enables you to study match play before deciding to open a bet.

If neither team is in attacking mode, or they seem unconcerned about ending with a tie, then that is a Lay the Draw bet to avoid making.

Action

To start you need to find matches at odds of around 2.00 between teams that have a high probability of scoring after the 60th minute of play.

Fortunately, there are two tools that can be recommended to help you discover the best candidates.

  • totalcorner.com
  • Betting-data Workbook

Totalcorner.com streams live data on global league matches and allows you to check which matches finished 0 – 0 after the first half and how many on-target shots were made by each team.

The Betting-data Workbook includes data to show the “shots on target to score a goal average”.

The latter is a very useful statistic and exclusive to the Workbook.

“Shots on target to score a goal average” tells you how many on-target shots on average it takes for each team to score a goal at home or away.

Note:

The teams included in the “Shots on target to score a goal average” statistics are from the following leagues:

  • English Premier League
  • English Championship
  • English League 1
  • English League 2
  • Scottish Premier
  • German Bundesliga 1
  • Spanish Primera Division
  • Italian Serie A
  • French Ligue 1

To work out the statistics for teams not covered by these leagues you can use the following simple formula:

Shots on target / Goals = Shots on target to score a goal

To help you work with the Betting-data Workbook downloaded Excel files, visit the Betting Tools guide for a tutorial on setting up the data sets.

Now, with access to these two tools, the process of selecting suitable matches using Totalcorner.com and the Betting-data Workbook can be explained – in five simple steps.

Step 1

At totalcorner.com click on the tab “Today List”

total corner today list

Step 2

Select “Customize View”, tick the “shots on target” box and then save. (Note: Too much information can become distracting, so best to just select the “shots on target” box and leave the rest.)

totalcorner shots on target

Step 3

Bookmark any matches that show a 0-0 half time score and refresh the page every 30 seconds.

lay the draw at first half

Step 4

Go to your Betting-data Workbook and select the “Main Table” tab.

betting data workbook

Step 5

Once the 60th minute arrives, use totalcorner.com to find matches in which both teams are producing high shots on target.

Then check with the Betting-data Workbook to confirm if the shots on target rate indicates an imminent likelihood of scoring a goal for either team.

Now you can lay the draw at odds of around 2.0.

Example 1: Fleetwood vs Swindon (England League 1)

I spotted a good candidate in a match between Fleetwood and Swindon.

The screenshot below, of all current matches that stand at 0-0, shows that in this match there are more shots on target being made by both teams.

lay the draw when 0-0 at 60

Fleetwood has delivered 6 shots on target, and the Betting-data Workbook shows that “The Trawlermen” need 2,8 shots on target on average to score a home goal.

fleetwood

Swindon in turn has produced 3 shots on target, and the Workbook shows “The Robins” need an average 3 on-target shots to score an away goal.

swindon

This data confirms that the match has an ideal profile.

As I mentioned before, Lay the Draw will be available at around 2.00 after 60 minutes of match play.

If you prefer, you can delay opening your bet in the hope of getting lower lay odds.

As soon as the first goal of the match was scored, I cashed my “Lay the draw” bet out.

lay the draw cash out

Note:

After the market was unsuspended, odds for the draw rose to above 9.0 and then turned around the 6.0 and 7.0 mark.

So, with fast work you could seek higher odds, and you may get them.

This would considerably increase profits.

Note also that there is a difference between hedging at 9.4 and at 6.0.

Example 2: Burnley vs Tottenham

Now let’s look at Burnley vs Tottenham, which also stands at 0–0 after 60 minutes and where both teams are also delivering a high level of shots on target.

lay the dra when 0-0 at 60 example 2

The screen chart shows Burnley has 2 shots on target, and the Workbook indicates that an average 2.6 shots on target results in a goal at home.

Burnley Tottenham has produced 5 shots on target, and they record an average 3 shots to score a goal when playing away. Tottenham

This is clearly another good match to select.

The draw can then be laid at odds around 2.0.

In this match, Tottenham scored in the 66th minute to put them ahead, giving a profit return of about 60% of stake.

lay the draw cash out example 2

Example Approach 3: Lay the draw at 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, etc.

When Laying the Draw at 60 minutes on matches that stand tied at higher scores, like 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, etc., there are two key factors that first need to be checked.

Factor 1

One team or both teams critically need to gain 3 points because:

  • The match is a battle for the title
  • It is a fight for a European place
  • It is a struggle to avoid relegation.

Factor 2

You need to know which teams show the best performance in such situations.

This is where the comprehensive stats tool “WhoScored” comes into play, because this amazing app is ideal for this betting approach.

The next six steps tell you exactly how to apply WhoScored.

Step 1:

At the whoscored.com website select “Statistics”

whoscored statistics

Step 2:

Under the “Team statistics table” select “Detailed”

whoscored team statistics detailed

Step 3:

In the “Category menu” choose “Goals”

whoscored goals

Step 4:

Under the “Minutes menu” select “60 – 90” and press “Search”

whoscored 60-90

Step 5:

Click “Total” for ordering teams from best to worst performance

whoscored total

Step 6:

Select either Home or Away if you need more precise details

whoscored home-away

Below are the type of results you’ll find by following these steps.

Sporting de Gijón vs Real Madrid: 2-3 in the 90th minute

Sporting vs Real Madrid

Monaco vs Toulouse: 2-1 in the 64th minute

Monaco vs Toulouse

Middlesbrough vs Arsenal: 1-2 in the 71st minute

Middlesbrough vs Arsenal

Everton vs Burnley: 2-1 in the 71st minute

Everton vs Burnley

Betis vs Sevilla: 1-2 in the 76th minute

Betis vs Sevilla

This example shows that the best performers for scoring goals between the 60th and the 90th minute are among the top international teams.

At Home

whoscored lay the draw at home

Away

whoscored lay the draw away

Note:

It is best to choose matches in which at least one team has a 0.8 goals/match scoring average or more.

Value approach

After 60 minutes the odds on the draw will be determined by the starting odds and earlier play during the match.

This means that laying the draw may often be at odds of about 2.3 to 2.5.

If you want lower odds you can wait until the 65th or 70th minute and lay at 2.00 or less.

An alternative value approach involves reversing this idea.

If you find the average odds available for the draw at about the 65th minute are longer than those for laying the draw at the 60th minute then this could represent a good value bet.

For example, if a match stands tied and average odds at the 65th minute for the draw are about 2.30, you could lay the draw at 2.00 in the 60th minute and claim this added value.

Betting at Betfair can give rise to many such value bets due to overreaction to events.

Examples include heavy betting on the favourite or sometimes on the draw when the score stands at 0-0.

You may wish to do your own further research into the opportunities presented by value bets such as these.

Pro Tip:

Another market that can help you assess your lay bets is the correct score market for the 75th minute.

Check the odds for a 0-0 score, bearing in mind that it should stand at about 1.90 to 2.00.

If the odds are 1.80 or less and the 0-0 score is being heavily backed, this could be a warning that the match won’t deliver any last-minute goals.

Conclusion

This strategy of laying the draw late in the game, when executed correctly, can return rewarding profits.

Of course, much will depend on your research for the match.

Several reasons have been given for adding this method to your betting arsenal, including the frequency of late match goals.

However, you should also be aware of possible disadvantages.

One obvious limitation is that you need to wait until the 60th minute to find matches that then stand at a draw.

It is advisable to be prepared for those matches with your own pre-match research.

You should avoid simply laying the draw without reason on every match that is tied at 60 minutes.

Further good advice is to be careful of betting on matches as the league season starts.

Early season matches can be unpredictable as it can take a little time for teams to get into their familiar form.

Finally, don’t overlook European Cup qualifiers.

These matches can offer perfect selections for this betting technique.

Football Betting Tip 3: Lay the Underdog 

This method involves laying an underdog team that has a one goal lead at half time or even during the first half.

Of course, this doesn’t mean laying just any team in this position.

But first let’s examine some of the reasoning involved in considering such matches.

Many gamblers will always think twice before betting against a home team, unless they have valid reasons for opening such a bet.

You will certainly be aware of the home team advantage concept, which is often quoted as having an important effect in many sports.

But how does it actually work?

Is it simply the roar of a supportive home crowd that spurs players into giving their best performance?

Is it the advantage of playing near home in familiar surroundings, while an away team must endure hours travelling followed by playing in a possibly hostile environment?

Or is it all down to peak testosterone, which unlocks home players’ unlimited resolve to defend their territory against invaders?

Whatever the influence, statistics show that home advantage does exist, as nearly 50% of matches are won by teams playing at their home ground.

Home teams are thoroughly familiar with their stadium and its playing conditions.

This may be what accounts for the remarkable home win records found in the league, Cup, and Europe.

And the fans too are sometimes regarded as an extra 12th player.

Fans certainly boost players with their volume of background noise.

But it seems they can also create pressures for the game’s officials.

According to research, referees avoid making narrow decisions against a home team to protect themselves from the additional stress of an angry crowd.

It has also been shown that changing base to a new home ground can affect a home team’s performance for six to nine months as they adapt to their new environment.

You might try to identify those teams with a strong record of being hard to play at home.

Or stadiums where the home crowd is known to create especially loud volumes of support.

Or teams that habitually “chase the game”, whatever the score.

Here are three kinds of approaches to laying a match-leading underdog.

Consider your own options in these cases of cashing out or allowing your bets to run.

Example approach 1: One goal difference (0-1, 1-2, 2-3, etc.)

The Method

  • The Home team should begin with odds of 2.5 or less.
  • The Home team should have a positive recent scoring record, especially when playing at home.
  • The Away team should have evidence of being out of best form.
  • When the Away team leads 0-1 at HT, lay them at under 2.5 odds (betting exchange) or back “The favourite and the draw” (bookmaker) at odds over 1.7.

With this strategy you will need to assure yourself of a few more significant factors to be sure you’re putting your money on a good selection.

Let´s look at the example below:

Inter Milan vs Chievo: HT score 0-1 (14 January 2017)

Inter vs Chievo

Match Preview

After winning 4 Serie A’s matches in a row, Inter are battling to qualify for the UEFA Champions League.

Chievo have suffered two consecutive defeats and are desperate to win this match to steer clear of relegation and remain a contender for the Europa League competition.

Recent Form
Inter Milan positive (+) key factors:

Inter recent form at home

+ Inter Milan won 5 of their 6 last matches playing at home in the Serie A.

+ Inter Milan collected 16 of 21 available points under their new coach Pioli.

+ Inter Milan scored in the final 15 minutes of play 10 times this season.

+ Inter Milan gained most of their points (three wins and three draws) in Serie A this season by scoring from trailing situations.

Inter Milan negative (-) key factors:

Inter Milan lost 1 of their last 6 matches while playing at home (against Cagliari).

Chievo positive (+) key factors:

Chievo recent form away

+ Chievo won 2 of their 6 last matches in Serie A playing away.

Chievo negative (-) key factors:

Chievo lost 3 of their 6 last matches when playing away.

Chievo conceded a total of seven goals in losing their last 2 Serie A games.

Head-to-Head Stats key factors

Inter vs Chievo H2H

  • Inter Milan only lost once at home to Chievo in Serie A (December 2001), but won 9 games and drew 4.
  • Chievo only scored against Inter in one of the last five Serie A meetings: a 2-0 win in the reverse match.
Inter Milan vs Chievo – First Half

The first 45 minutes of the game didn’t go Inter’s way.

Despite Inter creating many chances, it was Chievo’s Sergio Pellisier who put the visitors one goal up by scoring off a corner. Chievo's goal

That scoreline of 0-1 certainly contradicted run of play.

First Half Stats and Analysis

Analysing the stats for the first half is an important way to gain real insight into a team’s performance.

Inter vs Chievo first half

The screenshot above shows how Inter Milan dominated play for much of the period:

  • 67.2% – 32.8% of ball possession.
  • 6 – 1 shots on target.
  • 9 – 1 corners.

It’s clear they were fired up to try to get a result.

Stats like these provide essential information when you are searching for teams to select when using this betting method.

Note:

Similar stats for most of the European Leagues can be found if you check out the 100 Best Football Betting Sites guide in the football stats and data sites section.

A better way still of judging a match situation is to watch the match live on television or at the ground.

Watching or checking up on a team’s first half performance is an important part of deciding their potential before placing this type of bet.

You should also be considering a team´s players, bookings and injuries – or anything else that may impact on performance in the second half.

Action

In this match, the market odds enabled laying the underdog around 2.0 (Betfair) or alternatively betting on “The favourite and the draw” (Bet365) around 2.0.

After placing the bet, the options are as follows:

Possible Scenarios
  • Inter Milan equalize, so cash out for guaranteed profit
  • Let the bet run and collect full profit if Inter Milan win
  • If Chievo 0-1 at 70th min or odds fall to 1.4 then take a loss (stop loss)
  • Chievo go 0-2 up, then cash out for a loss
  • Chievo get a red card, wait for an equalizer, then cash out for good money
  • Inter Milan get a red card, cash out and take a loss

Inter tried hard for the equalizer in the second half and were rewarded in the 69th minute with Mauro Icardi’s 15th goal of the season.

Inter's goal

Here the safe choice would be to immediately cash out for a guaranteed profit on laying Chievo.

Taking profit is the purpose of this bet method!

Alternatively, you could let the bet run. In fact, Inter continued with their fight back.

Perisic got past the Chievo keeper with a late low shot from left of the net.

Inter's second goal

Then a placed goal from Eder, far into extra time, conclusively sealed Chievo’s defeat.

Inter's third goal

The final score of 3-1 gave Inter all three points and a fifth consecutive league win.

So, as first predicted, the half time leader ended the game with no points.

Reverse scenario

What if Chievo had proved up to winning the match?

In that case, an option is to cash out once Inter Milan score.

This gives you profit from the match despite Inter going on to lose.

This early cash out approach will bring you profits more often than if you let a bet run – but the relative profit per game will be smaller.

Leaving bets to run until the final result can bring larger profit wins – but, inevitably, these will deliver less often.

Choosing the right matches for this method is vital.

Conclusions

Positives
  • Opportunities to lay an away team often at odds below EVENS (smaller liability).
  • An equalizer can produce noticeable odds movements and good profits.
  • Readily available match prospects every week. Keen teams are needed that will fight because they need to win the match.
Dangers
  • Don´t try to lay any “underdog” that is up at half time! Only pick teams that you have researched including data from the first half of the game.
  • Failure to investigate the stats will undermine your bet, as some teams will lack the commitment to win their match.
  • Don’t be over-tempted to let your bet run. Taking smaller early profits can be more productive and satisfying than watching the home team lose out in the last minutes.

It’s possible you may wish to lay the underdog during the first half of the match.

This is an option that could present attractive odds before half time.

On the other hand, laying during the half time break gives time to reflect on first half play.

You can also get better laying odds – often below 2.0.

If you decide to delay opening your bet until half time, here is another interesting strategy.

Example approach 2: Two goals difference: 0-2, 1-3 strategy at half time or the 60th minute

This approach requires some courage and strong nerves but it can be very rewarding.

It involves laying the visiting team when they are already two goals up at 0-2 or 1-3 at half time or in the final half.

There are situations when this presents itself as the strategy to follow.

Your plan may be to lay the 0-1 scoring underdog in the second half of the game.

But while you are waiting for the second half or for odds to weaken, the underdog unexpectedly scores a second goal.

Laying the underdog now can offer considerable opportunities, particularly if the trailing team is performing strongly, whether it is a home team or a favourite playing away.

The Method

Procedure is to lay the away team when they take a 2-goal lead at 0-2 or 1-3.

There is no need to delay until half time if the following conditions apply:

  • The Home team has a strong record at home.
  • The Home team are in good recent form.
  • There is no news of injury, dispute, or missing players that could affect team play.
  • The first half shows the Home team has determination to rectify the score.
  • Any other strong factors to support laying the opposition.

A team down by two goals this way at half time will likely be priced at about 1.20 – 1.50.

The following example is from the Portuguese Primeira Liga.

Benfica vs Boavista 1-3 at half time

Benfica vs Boavista

These two teams each carry a reputation, with Benfica normally recognized as the stronger team.

Analysing pre-match and first half stats is still required, but a half time score-line of 1-3 to visiting Boavista presents a perfect opportunity to test the following strategy.

Depending on the odds at kick-off, half time odds on the underdog would be around 1.50 or above against a tough and favoured team like Benfica.

So here is the justification for laying Boavista when 1-3 at half time:

Preview Analysis

Benfica wanted to ensure their top place in the Primeira Liga, which made them firm favourites for this game.

Boavista, in contrast, were desperate to make away games count to try to stay out of relegation.

Recent Form
Benfica positive (+) key factors:

Benfica recent form at home

+ Benfica impressively won all 6 of their previous 6 matches at home.

+ Benfica had won all that season’s matches against three of the league’s top six teams.

+ Benfica had 41 points out of the 48 points then available.

+ Benfica scored 59% of their goals at the second goal attempt.

Benfica negative (-) key factors:

On one occasion (only) Benfica failed to achieve two or more goals in league matches at home (Benfica 1-1 Victória Setúbal).

Benfica lost one of their last 6 away matches (playing Maritimo).

Boavista positive (+) key factors:

Boavista recent form

+ Boavista won their previous two matches.

+ Boavista form was remarkably good in recent away matches, losing only one of their last five away games.

+ Boavista had scored in their last six away matches.

Boavista negative (-) key factors:

Boavista lost 3 of their 6 last games.

– Boavista showed 8 conceded goals in their season’s away matches.

Head-to-Head Stats key factors

Benfica vs Boavista H2H

  • Benfica won 5 out of the previous 6 matches at Estádio da Luz against Boavista.
  • Boavista had gained only one draw from their last 6 meetings at Benfica’s ground.
Stats and Analysis of 1st half

Benfica vs Boavista first half

Benfica held 68.8% of possession during the first half.

They created many strike chances, with 4 corners and 4 shots on target.

Yet Boavista skilfully achieved 3 shots on target for 3 away goals.

In this match, Benfica represents the skills and form you can find at a number of other clubs in different leagues.

They are an ideal choice for the type of team that can recover from trailing two goals down at half time.

Action

The expectation would be that Benfica had a good chance of improving their scoring in the second half.

This does not mean they should be expected to win the match!

All this betting method requires is for Benfica to pull one goal back.

And the half time match odds market showed Boavista available to lay at around 1.25.

LAY Boavista at around 1.25 for €120 stake (liability of €30)

In this case, the total match stake (liability) was to be €40.

So a €10 reserve remains available for investment at a later stage.

As you see, this betting method enables you to place large stakes with very much smaller liabilities.

Possible Scenarios:
  • Benfica pull back an early goal in the second half, making the score 2-3. Respond by cashing out if you are able to claim around 100% profit.
  • Benfica score one quick goal. Let your bet run to wait for the equalizer (good profits).
  • Boavista odds drop below 1.10 in the 70th minute, with the score at 1-3. Respond by laying again with the remaining balance of your stake.
  • At the 80th minute the score remains 1-3. Either cash out for a loss, or allow the bet to run.
  • Boavista make a fourth goal: score 1-4. Take a (stop) loss or allow the bet to run.

In the actual game, Benfica recovered a goal quickly in the 53rd minute, which made a good point to cash out the lay on Boavista. Benfica's goal

Alternative Scenario

If the score had still been 1-3 in the 70th minute, then Boavista odds would likely drop to under 1.10 and Boavista could be laid again with the remaining stake (as the scenario above).

Choices

When Benfica scored again in the 52nd minute, there remained another 40 minutes of play for Benfica to try to win the game.

Allowing the bet to run longer, to allow for a possible Benfica equalizer, could deliver a very large payout.

Whether to take profits after Benfica’s second goal, or wait for a bigger payout on the possibility of a third goal, are the kind of decisions you need to make.

If about 100% profit on your bet is satisfactory, then you should take it when available.

On the other hand, allowing your bet to run a little longer could avoid the disappointment of cashing out in the 75th minute before Benfica score their 3rd goal and equalizer two minutes later.

Letting bets run can be risky.

If you do decide to adopt this method, it is best to use smaller stakes for each bet, for example, a third or a half of your bank roll.

Conclusions

Positives
  • Low liability enables laying often at odds below 1.3 (or high odds at a traditional bookmaker).
  • Any quick goal from the home side toward restoring the balance, or a red card for the opposition, opens prospects for an equalizing goal and large potential profits.
  • Look out for matches where the home side must fight back to survive.
Dangers
  • Avoid placing bets randomly on every 0-2 market. Be selective, study the match, and be confident you understand the situation before laying the leading team.
  • Be wary if there are reports of injuries or low morale at the home side. If the club has ‘issues’ the team may not perform as you would expect.
  • Friendly or international matches can be suspect, as teams can be less committed than when playing in their league.

Example approach 3: 3 Goals difference (0-3 at half time)

This approach extends the possibilities of the previous two.

A half time or second half lead by 3 goals for the opposition might seem a daunting challenge.

But teams can respond and claw back from such obstacles.

If you spot a team losing 0-3 at half time or in the early second half, then check out the following data:

  • Has any red card(s) been issued to the losing team?
  • Are any crucial players missing from the losing team?
  • Was poor luck a factor in the first half for the losing team?
  • Is the losing team ahead in the league tables?

Here is a sample match from the English Championship league in 2016/2017.

Derby County vs Bristol City

Derby vs Bristol City

Preview Analysis

At the time of this match, Derby were desperate to gain the 6 points needed to reach the playoffs for promotion to the Premier league.

This was a match they had to win.

Bristol City were just 2 points above the relegation zone and needed maximum points to help them stay clear.

Recent Form
Derby County positive (+) key factors:

Derby recent form at home

+ Derby County won 5 of their previous 6 home matches and conceded just a single draw.

+ Sixty-seven per cent of Derby’s goals were scored in the second half.

+ Derby´s first team were rested for the previous match so they had plenty of energy for this game.

Derby County negative (-) key factors:

– Derby lost 3 of their 6 previous matches.

– Derby failed to score in 44% of their home matches.

Bristol City positive (+) key factors:

Bristol City recent form away

+ Bristol City showed no positive indicators from their recent form.

Bristol City negative (-) key factors:

Bristol lost their 6 last away matches.

Bristol form showed 60% of goals being conceded in the second half.

Bristol had earlier experienced a comeback from Sheffield Wednesday that turned a lead into a defeat by Sheffield of 3-2.

Head-to-Head Stats key factors

Derby vs Bristol City H2H

  • Derby County won 5 of their 6 earlier home matches against Bristol City.
  • The last time Bristol City won at Derby’s stadium was in 2011.
First half Stats and Analysis

Derby vs Bristol City first half

Bristol City had 52.4% of possession in the first half with 5 on-target strikes that delivered 3 goals.

These early stats don’t give much confidence that Derby County could recover.

However, two important factors would suggest that laying Bristol City was still a good bet:

  • Bristol City’s miserable recent performance statistics, especially when playing away.
  • Bristol City, with a 0-3 half time score, was now priced at 1.03 – 1.05 to win. That meant that for stakes of €3 to €5 there was a potential profit to be made of €100.
Action Lay Bristol City at half time for €5 at 1.03.

A policy of always taking profits as soon as available delivers handsomely in this case.

In the 57th minute, Darren Bent scored Derby County’s first goal enabling the bet to be quickly cashed out for a very satisfying profit!

Derby's goal

Football Betting Tip 4: Lay Current Score (LCS)

This is one of the very best methods to adopt for in-play betting!

First, it is simple to employ.

Second, it can be used in a game after conditions for other strategies haven’t materialized.

What is significant about the 75th minute?

Mostly, it’s the odds.

The average price for current score at this stage of a game will be around 2.0 in the Correct Score market.

But this can vary according to kick-off odds, in-match performance, and the current score.

For example, if a well-backed favourite seems to have lost the game by the 75th minute, odds could be significantly raised – even to 2.50.

Or, if the match has been disappointing, with two weak clubs playing without energy, the odds could be as low as 1.80.

So the conditions for this type of betting approach can vary.

Example approach 1: LCS when there is no more than one goal difference

There are some football matches that, like a good movie, have plenty of heart-stopping moments and swings in action, but increasing uncertainty about how it can end.

If an important game stays undecided, for example, when there is only a one goal lead or the score is currently tied, then it may be set up for “a big finale”, in which the next goal will decide the result.

The Method

This requires laying the current score in the 75th minute, provided there is only one goal difference between the teams.

So this can apply to any of the following score-lines: 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2, 2-3, 3-3, etc.

In this scenario, the need for a decisive conclusion is important.

Either, or both, of the teams must have a strong desire to achieve a positive result from the game.

Matches with low score-lines in the 75th minute, where there is no excitement or urge to gain points, are not appropriate for this method.

A perfect example for using this approach was this match:

Atlético de Madrid vs Barcelona

Atletico vs Barça

Preview Analysis

For Atlético, this match was the last opportunity to gain prime position for grabbing the league title.

A win would also allow direct qualification for the Champions League.

Barça similarly faced the chance of topping La Liga, if closest rivals Real Madrid didn’t win their next match.

The score at the 75th minute remained 1-1.

1-1 in the 75

So here the WhoScored tool comes into its own.

Configuring WhoScored to show which teams produce most goals after the 75th minute, confirms that both teams are high late-goal performers.

LCS Atletico home LCS Barça away

That means a good probability that both teams will fight until the very end of the match to come out the winner.

Action
Lay the current 1-1 in the 75th minute at odds of around 2.0.

In the event, Messi did the trick in the 86th minute by scoring the wanted goal for Barça.

Barça goal

That enabled immediate cashing out of the bet for profit, before Atléctico could take a chance to even up the score in the remaining time.

 

Example approach 2: LCS in second ties of European and domestic cups

The conditions of Cup and play-off competitions can provide some of the best circumstances for profiting from this method.

With aggregate scores in each leg of the competition deciding which team advances to further rounds, two teams tied on points provides the incentive for a full 90-minute battle.

When the result still remains open in the last 15 minutes of second ties, play can become frenetic with teams taking increasing risks.

There is a greater chance of goals being scored as teams throw all players into attack.

But this can often come from goalmouths left exposed, especially if a goalkeeper leaves the penalty area to assist colleagues in the final minutes.

You can use this strategy for knock-out matches in the Champions League, Europa League, Domestic Cups, league promotion or relegation play-offs, and World Cup qualifier play-offs.

It’s equally good for European Cup first qualifying rounds.

Barça vs Paris Saint Germain (UEFA Champions League quarter finals 2nd tie)

Barça vs PSG

Preview Analysis

Paris Saint Germain won the first leg 4-0.

PSG vs Barça

In the second tie second leg, Barcelona were 3-1 up in the 75th minute, but to get through to the semi-finals they needed a further 3 goals.

Barça vs PSG in the 75

That seems an inconceivable target.

It would be the greatest achievement in Champions League history.

But it wouldn’t stop both teams fighting to the last minute for more goals.

Action
Lay the 3-1 score at around 2.0 in the 76th minute.

The final 15 minutes saw most of the Blaugrana Catalans desperately attacking.

And Barça eventually made it 4-1 in the 88th minute, with Neymar finding the top corner from a deceptive free-kick.

Neymar fourth goal

At the same time, I cashed my lay bet out ensuring my profit!

Then Neymar found the net again at the beginning of added time with a penalty kick that sent the keeper the wrong way. Neymar fifth goal

At 5-1 down, PSG just had to keep Barça at bay for the remaining four minutes of the match.

Now Barça even added keeper Ter Stegen to the attack.

But it was a volleyed ball into the net by Roberto off Neymeyer that ended the game with its historic climax.

Sergi Roberto

A remarkable match and a 6-1 victory to Barcelona took them through to the next leg.

The relentless determination showed by Barça proved that laying 3-1 in the 75th was a smart bet to make!

Example approach 3: LCS as a saving bet (Extra bet)

Of course, not every match will go the way you predict.

Sometimes a match you’ve bet on in the Correct Score market may still be stuck at 0-0 in the 75th minute.

But there is an option that could see you get your money back without loss, provided both teams are still trying hard to gain winning points.

Suppose you’ve made a bet combination on the CS market and around the 75th minute there’s still no score in the match.

Laying the current score for your initial stake will get your money back, as long as there’s another goal (You can study this approach further under Correct Score systems presented in Chapter 12).

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Celta de Vigo

Shaktar vs Celta de Vigo

Preview Analysis

This match appears to be a possible choice for placing a 1-2 correct score market bet.

Stats showed that Shakhtar playing at home had good chances of scoring once then defending that position to the end of a game.

Shaktar at home

Recent form for Celta showed them scoring at least 2 goals from 4 of their previous 6 matches away.

Celta de Vigo away

Overall, there was enough evidence that Celta could close two goals playing away at the Arena Lviv.

The screenshot below shows how anticipated outcomes can appear to go wrong, with the score-line remaining at 0-0 in the 75th minute.

Shaktar vs Celta de Vigo in the 75

So this was an opportunity to place a ‘saver’ bet, by laying the current score.

Here’s the justification:

  • Shakhtar needed to score and win to gain passage to the next round.
  • Celta needed a goal now to enforce extra time.
  • Both teams had made 6 on-target shots, giving a sense that the match could contain at least one goal.

Shaktar vs Celta de Vigo shots on target

Finally, Celta equalized the qualifying round with a late goal…

Celta de Vigo late goal

The scratch bet saved a loss and returned the initial stake.

Yes, you could describe this as chasing losses, which is generally not encouraged.

But this method only corrects a betting position, and it can often be used as a safe escape provided you keep to your money management rules.

Keep records of these saver bets so you’ll know how well they work with your selections over the longer term.

Example approach 4: LCS – Underdog winning by one or drawing against a big favourite

This option involves laying the underdog when winning 0-1, 1-2, 2-3 etc., around the 75th minute.

In these matches, a defeat must mean a big problem for the favourite.

This method can also be applied when the score is tied, and again the favourite seriously needs to win the game.

Note that, even in challenging circumstances, strong favourites are still expected to win, or not lose.

So laying the current score is likely to be at high odds that could reach up to 2.5.

Real Madrid vs Real Betis created a perfect match for this approach.

Madrid vs Betis

Preview Analysis

Real Madrid wanted to be certain they stayed top of La Liga and were anxious not to lose further points.

Betis were fighting relegation and were desperate to gain at least one point against “Los Blancos”.

The stats for 75 minutes, shown below, suggest a strong chance that Real Madrid could still achieve a second goal.

Madrid vs Betis in the 75

Action
Lay 1-1 at around 2.5 in the 75th minute.

The result of the game saw Real Madrid successfully gain their winning goal in the 81st minute.

Madrid late goal

You can understand it is a safer choice to lay the current score than back the favourite to be the next scorer.

Often it could be the underdog that scrapes another goal in the dying minutes of a match.

However, statistics appear to confirm that the big class teams are most able to use the final minutes to claim a point or gain all three by securing a win.

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