Betting on football: How to do Football betting analysis [Chapter 1]
So you´ve found a football match that you think is a perfect choice to bet on.
There´s only one thing left to do:
And it’s not just a case of looking at this match and deciding one team is better than the other so you’ll put a bet on them…
But analyze the key stats and data related to the match.
If you see any indicator in both teams´stats and data that could damage the outcome of your bet, you might be better off moving onto the next match of your list.
That´s why it´s so important football betting analysis when it comes to betting on football, because it allows you to find matches that have high probabilities to produce the outcome you are betting on.
That means that you will be able to focus on the correct matches and in the long term improve your football betting performance.
And in this chapter I´m going to show you the 8 steps to analyse any football match that you want to bet on.
Considering how a team has been performing in recent weeks is probably the most popular factor when it concerns football betting analysis.
This can be quite time-consuming if you’re looking at a wide selection of games.
So what do you need to focus on?
Usually, you look at how a team has performed in their last five or six games.
You need to look at:
– Whether they lost, won or drew their last matches
– How many goals they scored and conceded
– How did they do when playing at home and away
– How strong have the teams been that they have been playing against
It’s best to just consider one competition, say results in the La Liga BBVA. Including results against European teams and in cup competitions where weakened sides may have been played aren’t totally relevant.
To illustrate this, let’s imagine we’re placing a bet on Valencia’s home game against Villarreal. Just what do we have to do to try and work out the most likely result of the game and try and win some cash.
It may be that Valencia are 8th in the table and Villarreal 4th but that’s based on points earned throughout the season and those placings could be irrelevant.
You need to take a look at the current form of the two teams. Valencia were 14th in the table just one month ago but are on a run of one defeat, three wins and a draw in the past few weeks.
It’s not been such a good time for Villarreal who remain 4th in the table but are on a run of two wins, one draw and two defeats..
As you can see therefore, Valencia may be below Villarreal in the league table but on recent form are doing much better than their opponents and could well win this game.
There’s still plenty to consider though, take a closer look at that recent form. For example, just who have Valencia been playing on their good run.
As you can see they’ve been getting good results against teams at the top of the table like Barça and Sevilla, so that form looks even better.
It’s the same with Villarreal, they’ve been losing to sides at the top of the table like Real Madrid so that’s not too bad.
However they also have been suffering defeats to teams at the wrong end of the table like Rayo Vallecano so they really are going through a bad patch.
It’s best to just look at La Liga BBVA form. Disregard Copa del Rey results because sides often play weakened teams in those competitions leading to shock results.
Valencia are playing at home but does that increase or decrease their chances of winning?
You might think it will increase their chances but again you need to do your research. Some teams are really strong at home but others for some reason fail to win as many matches as they do away.
So check out Valencia’s home record before placing your bet.
The same goes for Villarreal who are the away team in this example. A lot of sides have poor away records but there is some whose style is better suited to playing away and win plenty of games on their travels.
It really is so frustrating when you don’t do the research and pick a home team to win simply because they’re playing at home.
Then they lose, you look at the league table and see that they’ve only won three out of ten home games this season!
Head To Head
Head to head statistics are also important…
Does one team dominate or struggle against the team they are playing?
Look for bogey teams and how many goals or cards have been produced in games between the two sides in past games.
How far does a team have to travel and is there anything suspicious about the head to head statistics such as possible points exchanges.
Take the derby match between Sunderland and Newcastle United for example.
Recent years have seen Sunderland dominate the fixture regardless of where they are in the league at the time the game was played.
In October 2015, Sunderland comfortably beat Newcastle despite having not won in the Premier League all season.
Later on in this guide, you will learn about one football betting strategy, which purely depends on those head to head stats.
How Important is the Game?
This is particularly relevant in the final weeks of a season.
Some sides may have already won promotion or the title so don’t really have much at stake in their remaining games. Sides that are in mid-table and know they won’t be winning promotion or getting relegated are also to be avoided.
Take the memorable Man City v QPR game where City had to win to clinch the Premier League title. Even when they were 2-1 down with just minutes to go they kept piling forward and eventually got the all-important win.
Also there was the 2013-14 clash in Portugal between Porto and Benfica who had a Europa League final a few days later. That game meant more to them than the league match so Benfica played a reserve side.
Just think to yourself, how many times do sides battling relegation suddenly start winning some games towards the end of the season.
Sunderland did that with a series of shock wins over top sides as they battled to stay in the Premier League.
Football Weather Conditions
Bad weather can be a real equalizer.
It’s really important that you take the weather conditions into consideration when working out your selections. Rain, snow, hot and cold weather can affect the game you want to place a bet on.
How many times have you heard the comment, “England will never win the World Cup over there, it’s too hot.”
Matches do get postponed but there’s a huge pressure for games to be played, especially those that are going to be televised.
The football calendar is busy enough already without matches having to be rescheduled. That means sometimes there will be games played in less than ideal conditions.
Take for example, the FIFA Club World Cup match that took place between Cruz Azul and Western Sydney Wanderers in the 2014-15 season.
The match was played in appalling conditions with the ball continually splashing its way through one puddle after another.
The tournament had a tight schedule though so postponing it really would have created a headache for the organizers.
Azul won 3-1 but Wanderers boss Tony Popovic commented after the game “We never really got a chance to show how good we are. We’ll never know now, due to the pitch.”
High winds can also cause problems and lessen the actual gap in class between the two teams. It’s even possible in such circumstances for goalkeepers such as Peter Shilton to score from a wind-assisted goal kick.
Take a look at the weather forecast if you can and see if the forecasted conditions might have some effect on the game.
Just type the home´s team inside the box.
Injuries and suspensions
It’s important to check for any injuries, abscences or maybe even potential conflicts in dressing rooms before placing a bet.
I love inuriesandsuspensions.com because they not just notify you about an injuried or suspended player, but they also especify you if this is a key player like: Top scorer or first goalkeeper.
Some teams will really suffer if a key player is missing, say if Manchester City lost Sergio Aguero for a period of time. City do have some good strikers who can step into the side and do a job.
But what if several players are missing?
Can the team survive such an injury crisis?
Don’t lose money just because you haven’t looked at the team news…
Take the Valencia v Villarreal example, look out for any injury news. If Valencia are without players such as Paco Alcácer, Dani Parejo and Mustafi then their chances of winning will drop.
It’s the same situation if Villarreal are without Bakambu, Bruno and Musaccio. Valencia may be at full strength while Villarreal have injury problems, such knowledge tips the scales in the direction of Valencia winning the match.
Also look out to see if the teams have an important game coming up. Some teams often rest players if they have a vital Europa or Champions League game coming up in midweek.
Keep an eye out for stories that suggest a team may not be happy with their manager. That can often happen at clubs and it will affect their performance on the pitch.
It’s not just whether poor results are causing disputes between the player and the manager. Sometimes there are fans carrying out protests and that can put players off.
Also there was the game between Everton and Manchester United in October 2015.
Everton went into the game in good form but on the morning of the match it was announced their former player and manager Howard Kendall had passed away.
The whole atmosphere at Goodison Park changed and they lost the game 3-0.
Also take a look at the financial situation a team is in. If the club haven’t been able to pay their players, then team morale isn’t going to be very high. Such problems off the pitch can really cause problems on the pitch.
This can happen in lower leagues but does also happen with some higher placed sides too. Teams such as Portsmouth have had problems and they ended up getting relegated as their finances hit the rocks.
The Importance of the Manager
It’s not just the players who you need to focus on when deciding just where to place your bet. Managers have always been influential and controversial figures and they produce the newspaper headlines just as much as the players do.
Every week managers are paraded in front of the media for press conferences. These are shown live on television and are sometimes more entertaining and controversial than the games the manager will be talking about.
Take a Jose Mourinho or Jurgen Klopp press conference for example. We’re all just waiting for something controversial to happen and with those two it usually does.
The fact is though that managers are more influential in this day and age than ever before. They have so much to do as they try to keep their team winning or at least staying in the top leagues.
Managers such as Luis van Gaal and Manuel Pellegrini are spending hundreds of millions of pounds on players.
Not always the players they want but as chairman sometimes stick their oar in, but still they are playing fantasy football for real.
If you are placing bets on the number of goals scored in a game or the correct score, you may want to learn more about tactics and the playing philosophies of the managers involved.
This can help with in-play bets too, for example will a team going 2-0 up carry on attacking or will their manager suggest they settle for that score.
Identifying defensive and offensive minded styles of playing will help you understand how a manager may approach an upcoming game.
This will help you decide what football betting strategy to employ. This can be explained further by looking at the way Atletico Madrid boss Cholo Simeone runs his team.
Just to show how important the manager of a team can be, let’s take a look at how Argentinian manager Cholo Simeone turned Atletico Madrid into champions.
Two days before Christmas in 2011, he was appointed as the new coach of Spanish side Atletico de Madrid.
The previous coach was Gregorio Manzano who had lost his job after a poor run in La Liga and being knocked out of the Copa del Rey by third-tier Albacete Balompie.
The former Sevilla coach had only taken over towards the end of the 2010-11 season.
Simeone certainly turned the club around as he led his team to triumph in the Europa League and finishing fifth in La Liga.
Further success was just around the corner and in the 2012-13 season he led Atletico to the UEFA Super Cup, the Copa del Rey and a third place finish in La Liga, their best finish since winning the league in 1996.
The new manager had taken a struggling team and won three major trophies and confirmed Atletico as one of the top three teams in Spain alongside Barcelona and Real Madrid but without spending an absolute fortune.
They suffered a blow in the summer of 2013 when they sold top striker top striker Radamel Falcao to Monaco.
That didn’t affect them too much though as they began the 2013-14 season with eight straight wins including an away win at Real Madrid.
Their great form continued throughout the season and on May 17, 2014 the transformation of Atletico from challengers to champions was completed as they drew at Barcelona to clinch the title.
A week later they lost to Real Madrid in the Champions League final.
Even great managers can make mistakes and Simeone regretted risking striker Diego Costa only to see him have to depart the field early in the game.
Now, have a look at the goals stats during the 2013-14 when Simeone won La Liga title with Atletico de Madrid:
Both teams to score:
This records show us that Atletico de Madrid were a good team to bet on Over 1.5 goals with the 79% of the total matches. That means 30 out of 38 matches, not bad!
You may think that Over 1.5 goals market has very poor odds but later on in this guide I´ll teach you 2 football betting strategies that it´ll help you boost your payouts.
Atletico weren’t able to retain their title the following season but they still remain one of the top three teams in Spain and a major force in the Champions League.
With teams playing in more than one competition, it’s important to take a look at the line-ups that are being played.
Back in the 1970s and even the 80s, teams didn’t think twice about naming strong line-ups for domestic or European games. They wanted to win trophies and it’d be their best side that would do that.
Now it’s not the case at all.
Liverpool and Spurs rarely ever play their strongest sides in Europa League games. West Ham United were faced with a Europa League qualifier just days before their first Premier League game of the 2015-16 season.
They sent a team out that was full of reserve players and were knocked out of the Europa League. They returned home, played their full side against Arsenal and won 2-0.
The Capital One Cup is also treated the same way as managers try not to burn out their players. This makes betting on football really difficult.
Sadly, it’s also become the norm for the FA Cup too and other cup competitions throughout Europe.
Some say it’s showing disrespect to the competition but these days’ leagues such as the Premier League and the Bundesliga are more important to managers than domestic cup competitions.
Arsenal are a prime example here; it’s no surprise Arsene Wenger has never won the League Cup in England.
Time after time he has made mass changes to his team and suffered embarrassing defeats to teams like Bradford City and in the 2015-16 competition, Sheffield Wednesday.
It also shows that the club doesn’t have such a strong squad as they’d like to think they have.
Tip: Always check the starting line ups
Use this tip to save some money.
I can remember a game that saw Barcelona taking on Real Sociedad. Of course a win for the mighty Barca was my tip as they were second in the table and their opponents 15th.
I’d looked at the form and seen that Sociedad had gone three games without a win.
I made a mistake though that I don’t want you to make, because I placed my bet without checking the line-ups.
Real Madrid had lost to Valencia so a win for Barcelona would have taken them to within a point of their great rivals.
Imagine my surprise when finding out that Messi, Neymar, Dani Alves and Pique weren’t playing.
They went on to lose the game 1-0 and my bet went down. If only I’d checked the line-ups. Of course this isn’t easy when you place a bet a few days before the game.
As you can see therefore, there is a lot to consider when it comes to betting on football. In the next chapters of this guide, I will look at other areas in more depth and I hope they will strengthen the chances of getting your football betting challenges.