Professional Gambler Tips: The Essential Guide
Let’s start with some realism.
Gambling is not a simple way to earn a living.
You may think that all it takes to become a successful professional gambler is a profitable strategic plan.
But this is only one requirement for success.
The key feature common to every winning professional gambler is mastery over their own mental psychology.
By learning how to take control of the mental processes that affect every gambler’s actions you will gain a head start in reaching your betting ambitions.
Professional Gambler Mindset: The right attitude
One of the most popular encouragements to testing out gambling skills is betting on football markets.
It can seem like the perfect opportunity to earn a little extra money while following everyone’s favourite sport.
Dozens of football betting sites with impressive sales messages may convince you how easily you can make money by following their winning plans.
Sales pitches from successful gamblers offer to share their own schemes and strategies.
Claims of thousands of euros in earnings over previous months seek to assure you that by following their system you too can rely on financial success.
The growth in this popular market has created a perception that all you need is an appropriate system and approach to win big regularly, even with minimum stakes.
But let’s examine how learning to bet on football this way actually works out.
- You start with an aim: To make money.
- You consider an enjoyable plan: Betting on sports.
- You investigate a strategy:
- Studying betting systems
- Becoming a betting service subscriber
- Purchasing a betting system for yourself.
- You try out your system with real money.
- Lo and behold, you find you lose. You conclude that betting systems do not work.
The reason you failed and gave up could be due to any of several factors.
However, the most frequent causes of failure for gamblers starting out are:
- A lack of planning or discipline.
- Leading to over-betting.
- An excess of emotion.
- Leading to inability to accept losses.
- Simply insufficient commitment.
As you will learn, understanding the psychology of betting – your mental attitude – is more important over the longer term to winning than even a betting system.
The right state of mind
- Approach betting as a profession.
- Accept it’s not a means to get rich quick.
- Acknowledge the effort you put in will determine the amount you get out.
The wrong state of mind
- Can’t accept losses.
- Poor self-discipline.
- Short-focus and emotionally driven.
- Unwilling to commit effort and time.
If you think you fall into the second group, then betting is not for you!
Becoming a Professional Gambler: 6 Habits You Need to Adopt
Always being able to keep emotions under control is a significant feature of successful gamblers.
Maintaining such stability – even when faced with stressful situations – helps avoid the risks of clouded judgment.
Following the rules and sticking to them requires self-discipline.
Professional gamblers understand why they must stick to their plan.
They are frequently perfectionists with pride in their skills.
They enjoy the challenge of applying their techniques to the game and winning.
3. Ability to focus
The last bet is over. Just focus on the next.
You might feel elated or depressed by your last result, but such feelings won’t help your next decision.
Professional gamblers always return to focusing on technique.
This way breaks the cycle of emotions.
Concentrate on your plan and follow it onto your next bet as this is your best path to secure success.
Patience is virtuous, but in gambling it’s essential.
When you must wait to see results, then that’s just what you must do.
Impatience can lead to making unjustified bets that don’t agree with your system.
This is unprofessional and will likely lose you money.
The ability to make decisions is ultimately crucial.
If you have a plan then this becomes easier.
Trust in your system and execute it efficiently.
If you can remain calm in difficult situations, then you already have an advantage.
The ability to stay calm through both success and adversity is a defining trait of the professional gambler.
No matter how hard it seems you should try to practice it consistently.
As emotional beings, it is natural to feel excited after achieving a winning bet.
But if our bet loses, we are equally likely to feel distress.
A professional gambler needs to keep these emotions under control because they can become an influence for making poor decisions.
Take the situation when you have just made a losing bet.
Anxiety can compel you to bet once again to try to recoup your losses, despite no bet being indicated by your system.
Performing at your best
For betting success, you can and should study betting systems, winning techniques, and managing your betting bank.
But, ultimately, what will determine your success is your psychological state of mind.
In this respect, aiming for peak performance in betting is no different from developing the same in business or sports.
Knowledge and technique are important, but mastering the mental approach to pressure is key to performance success.
However, in contrast to some professions, betting is entirely egalitarian.
You do not need to be academically gifted.
Success in this discipline depends on your approach, not on your intellectual achievements.
At the top of your list for achieving best performance must be the instruction to always enjoy yourself.
Don’t allow statistics and bet ratios to engulf your mind.
Betting is fun, so allow your enthusiasm full reign.
The second rule for achieving your best is to maintain confidence in yourself.
This includes your betting techniques and your confirmed conviction that you can succeed.
Confidence is a trait that some are born with.
Others need to derive it from successes in other fields.
Relating past achievements in other areas can strengthen your self-belief.
Ultimately, you can gain confidence by sheer hard work.
Do thorough research into betting systems and methods, test these out, and make your own improvements.
Develop a clear plan that you can call your own and then feel confidence in it.
The third rule for peak performance is to maintain perspective with the right attitude.
This refers to the way you deal with adversity in your betting markets and its effects on your daily life.
Peak performance is not possible all the time.
Game theory will tell you that a good bet has high probabilities, but such bets do not always win.
Like every professional, you will experience slumps that sometimes appear endless.
Your attitude to dealing with a daily diet of ‘moving forward only to be forced back’ is what really counts.
If you once break through such doldrums, then you know the same can be done again.
This is powerful knowledge in dealing with downturns, and it will give you added strength as a gambler.
The final item among these performance attributes is personal belief.
Mastering the game requires a belief that you can do it.
Successful gamblers are not born, their success comes from constantly believing in what they can achieve.
Never doubt the potential of belief.
If you’re inclined to be sceptical, then start by just pretending you believe.
Maintain your belief, no matter how long success takes, as you’ll find this strength of will eventually delivers rewards.
Nevertheless, if you find you really don’t have the will to continue, then be honest with yourself.
Professional betting can be a challenging and insecure occupation.
At times, you can feel isolated, mentally exhausted, or simply bored.
If you discover you don’t enjoy it, then it’s better not to bet.
Without enthusiasm, the risk of your losing money is too great.
Earlier it was mentioned how betting could be practiced by anyone regardless of academic skills.
But this doesn’t imply that professional gambling is simply a box-ticking mechanical task.
In fact, the aptitude and talents required of a professional gambler are closest to those of such elite professionals as chess master, top athlete, or creative artist.
Such individuals have needed to address psychological challenges every day in order to achieve their success.
To be able to mentally face and overcome the barriers to success it is necessary to recognize and understand these barriers thoroughly.
Once you train yourself to become familiar with the tests they set, you will have the knowledge to break through them and reach your goals.
The four main obstacles to overcome are these:
When we are fearful we hesitate, or avoid, taking what we perceive as a risk.
This emotion can be helpful in protecting us from real dangers.
But over-fearfulness can prevent us from acting when we should.
In gambling, the underlying fear is that a bet once placed could lose us money.
This is not an unnatural concern, and provides the gambler with necessary caution.
But when fear acts to prevent any decision, it needs to be resisted or no bets will ever get made.
For example, after making a losing bet, fear may halt us from placing the bet that follows.
Yet, as the odds have it, that next bet could have been a winner.
As a result, succumbing to fear potentially prevents us from recovering our loss.
The way to avoid becoming controlled by such fear is to recognize that losing bets are made by every gambler.
Provided losing bets are fewer than winning bets, you will end up with a profit.
So, losing bets should be nothing to fear.
Greed, or avarice, affects us in the opposite way to fear.
Being greedy means wanting more than we really need.
A desire, or need, for gain is a healthy stimulus; it motivates us to achieve our aims.
But excessive greediness invariably leads to negative results.
When we become greedy, we step beyond our normal limits.
Take the example of an accumulator bet.
You are satisfied with your selection, but then decide to add one more.
Your focus is only on the extra profit you could make.
But that extra selection stretches the odds so that you are now more likely to lose everything.
A gambler affected by greed makes irrational decisions.
This can lead to seeking opportunistic and risky bets in every marketplace without planning or direction.
To avoid the risk of becoming too greedy, learn to trust in your own betting system.
Test it until you become confident in its results.
Then you can rely on it to deliver you a profit, without needing to risk random bets.
Stress that arises from engaging in betting may clearly involve the fear of losing money.
What needs to be understood is that to allow stress to exert its pressures can only multiply the problem.
When a gambler cannot decide how to manage a betting decision, the resulting stress will make that decision even harder, and the decision made will most likely be poor.
In these situations, salvation lies in relying on acquired understanding and skills.
Knowledge of your betting system and market means knowing how to bet effectively; and experience of doing so means you can trust in that knowledge.
Professional gamblers know they have the experience and skills to make profits from gambling, and this enables them to have the self-confidence to master situations of stress.
Stress can arise in all aspects of life, regardless of the profession you pursue.
But it can still impact on how you perform.
Relationship problems are a typical example (though not so unusual for gamblers, due to the solitary nature of this work).
External stress is harder to address than finding solutions to professional problems, because solutions are often not under your control.
So, the safest answer, when such stress affects betting performance, is to temporarily turn to simulated (paper) betting, rather than execute live bets.
Paper betting enables a gambler to follow the market and maintain practice, but without the risk of losing real money.
Note: An excellent way to practice paper betting is using tipster competition sites.
In my football betting sites guide you can see the best ones on the internet.
Once a problem resolution has been found, or the external stress is under control, the gambler can return to live betting without facing losses due to stress.
How Stress Affects Betting Profits?
Stress can affect different gamblers in different ways.
But the outcome is nearly always a negative impact on the balance sheet.
In some cases, stress may cause gamblers to increase their betting activity.
This could be due to a compulsion to improve winnings after losses.
In other cases, gamblers may withdraw from their usual betting volume.
This may be caused by a sense of indecision driven by stress.
In either case – ill-considered, off-plan betting, or reluctance to bet – the expected result will be harmful to profit and loss.
If you become aware that your betting process is no longer getting good results, your first step should be to consider your emotional condition.
Remember that betting requires the same application and attitude as many elite professionals.
Before blaming your system or method (i.e., your tools), make sure your mindset isn’t distracted by other concerns.
Betting success doesn’t come overnight, it needs dedication and perseverance.
Accepting you will encounter losses is a necessary part of learning to be disciplined and self-controlled.
Self development as a professional gambler: Reflections
There’s a world of difference between learning a few strategic tricks and becoming a professional gambler.
You can find many betting systems through the Internet that may get you started, but none can substitute for the experience to be gained from time actually spent in betting.
The most important lesson to understand is that betting requires your commitment, time, and effort before it works for you.
The days when you experience success can make profitable betting seem very easy.
It’s the days that turn to losses, maybe for a period, that test your mettle.
It’s at this time that many beginners lose conviction.
They may react by chasing their losses with increased stake spending.
Or they may start adding off-plan bets that are not in their system.
Or they may just abandon their strategy and look for something new.
It is only by mastering self-discipline that the gambler can pass through these difficulties towards success.
Mastering betting takes time…
Acquiring such self-discipline can be a multi-stage process.
Those new to betting are likely to test out many alternative systems and strategies.
In doing so, they will often position themselves with more bets than they can handle and cause negative results in their bank.
Seeing poor results, the next step will probably be to search for further systems or strategies, which give promises of better returns.
This is where the importance of discipline first breaks down.
When new to betting, you may find yourself switching between methods as soon as you hit a bad spell.
But without disciplined consistency you will never discover how a method performs over the longer term.
In fact, many gamblers never get beyond this stage.
They continue to move from one practice to the next, searching for the holy grail – but never finding it.
The way to escape this endless path is to consider this profession from the longer-term view.
When short-term approaches constantly fail, you must realise it requires more than strategies and systems to make profits consistently.
You will discover that it is the preparedness, financial management, self-control, and patient practice that set apart those who make a profit from those who fail.
When selecting strategies, you will learn that it is quality that earns a premium over quantity.
You will find that using a wide variety of betting markets, systems, and techniques is unnecessary.
Focusing on one or two will be sufficient.
This will enable you to concentrate your time on them.
And the more time you spend the better will be your results.
With a system or two that you are content to remain with, losses and thin periods will become more acceptable as part of the game.
Emotionally, accepting losses is inevitably hard.
But growing confidence in your betting edge and selection skills will help suppress negative feelings.
By managing your finances effectively, remaining patient and consistent, and learning from your mistakes, your profits will begin to show an upturn.
Of course, if you think this sounds all too quick and easy – then you are right.
It can take a long time to perfect your betting game.
Most gamblers fail to master their weaknesses.
They either remain at the development stage or give up.
So how do you ensure you are among the winners, not the losers?
This is an idea that is common among many professionals.
Writing out your beliefs, values, and principles – the concepts you feel should apply to your work and professional development – can help to focus your aims.
This practice of outlining a philosophy to describe how you intend conducting your approach to gambling will provide a structure that can guide your actions.
Each person will have their own preferences and individual betting style, and there is no strategy that can suit everyone.
Some gamblers may prefer to bet frequently but in small amounts to control their risks.
Others may choose to target big returns, but do so less frequently.
Some will make many selections every day, while others are content with just a few.
The best way to come up with a betting philosophy that suits you is to write out your answers to a number of questions, such as the following…
- What are your reasons for betting?
- What do you enjoy about it most?
- Which markets do you prefer (e.g., football)?
- What are your strengths and weaknesses?
- Why have you chosen the system(s) you use?
- How does your system(s) compare with others?
- How does your money management suit your betting?
- What is your hedge?
- Why are you going to be a success?
You can add other questions, of course, that are relevant to your own situation.
Answering these questions to create a document that sums up your own betting philosophy will help your decision making and progress.
Over time, some of your answers might need changing due to experience and circumstance, but they should continue to reflect your honest betting policy.
The next practice recommended to give you a real betting edge, is to regularly reflect on events, both good and bad, in all aspects of your betting.
Consider, for example, the management of your betting bank.
If your maximum stake per bet is 3% of your bank, then 5 losses each day over a weekend could lose you up to 30% of your financing.
Clearly, this will create an uncomfortable feeling.
If your bank is small, then this depletion may not be too serious.
But if you hold a large betting fund, then 30% could represent a significant loss.
Reflecting on this event can help you consider how to avoid such situations in future.
An obvious answer to this problem would be to change the size of your average stake, or reduce the number of selections you make daily.
However, there may also be other solutions to consider such as better preparation, or changing bet format.
Once you have considered a solution, your new concept will need testing.
It may immediately deliver better results, or you may need to go through several cycles of changes and testing before you are satisfied.
This practice of reflecting on events, learning from both good and bad, can be applied to all elements that make up your betting activity.
As example, you may find that one of your systems is performing especially well.
By reflecting on why this is so, you will gain invaluable knowledge.
Equally, if you realise that a strategy is performing poorly, reflecting on its problems can indicate potential changes.
You can then experiment with these until satisfied.
Remembering to reflect on betting performance can also involve your betting philosophy.
You may realise you have drifted from the principles first set out.
Or, on reflection, it may be that your philosophy can be updated for the better.
Trying out these two concepts will help you, whether you are a betting novice or a practiced gambler wishing to get better.
The Call of The New
Whatever system or betting approach you choose, success will depend on you – your preparation, your commitment, and your skill.
The most inventive strategy is not necessarily the best.
Simple systems practiced regularly can deliver handsomely if managed well.
If you feel you’re not getting the best out of your current system, you can modify it or even devise a system of your own.
Nevertheless, there will always be inquisitiveness about new betting platforms and angles that are advertised as bringing superior results.
In fact, it is natural to want to experiment by developing and testing your skills on new opportunities.
Alternative programs might offer the edge you are seeking.
You will find a wealth of different betting markets now offered by bookmakers.
You might combine several markets, or investigate them for profitable tips.
But with so much market variety on offer, the question is: where to start?
Always follow a methodical approach.
When you have considered a market or markets to try out, draw up a spreadsheet for recording movement of odds, betting calculations, results, and notes.
Establish the personal rules you intend to follow, then begin by paper betting.
By studying market activity, changing odds, and back-testing, you will gain valuable knowledge of how each market performs.
Reflecting on results will help develop an appropriate strategy.
It might require several months of paper betting before you are familiar with the limits and volatilities of each market.
Once satisfied, start betting for real, but keep the stakes small.
With the deeper understanding you have gained, you have the steps to prepare your mind to become a professional gambler.
Now it´s time to learn how to manage your betting bank.
Managing Your Betting Bank
If you intend to make a profit from your betting, and you surely do, then you need to know about managing your betting bank.
Proper bankroll management isn’t just a helpful option, it is crucial to your profitability in the long term.
In the following section, you will not only find out how to manage and steadily grow your betting account, you will also learn about the many pitfalls awaiting the eager gambler.
Certain Favourites/Dead certain bets
Does the following thinking process sound familiar?
- “There’s no way they can lose this game.”
- “It’s a ‘dead cert’ if ever there was one.”
- “They’ve never lost at this type of match.”
Whatever the basis for your opinion, your firm decision is to back this team heavily to win, even though you may add a small hedge after the game begins.
In this case, you’ve allowed over-confidence to influence and increase your stake, despite knowing that you can’t always win.
Sometimes, you can be swayed by commentary during progress of a game:
- “They only need to resist the champions for ten more minutes. This could make the biggest upset of the season.”
You may want to share in this biggest of wins by upping a stake, yet the statistical odds on the game haven’t really changed.
Ignoring your stake limit on such occasions – or because you are betting on your favourite team – is a practice that will ultimately damage your bank balance.
Betting the Bank
Backing agreed favourites, at very short odds, with the whole of your bank balance, is a certain way to soon end up penniless.
It may be Real Madrid, Barcelona, Chelsea, or Bayern Munich.
Whatever the top performer, you’ll be encouraged by some to believe that on match day they’re the sure-fire winner.
If you can’t lose, you won’t want to miss this opportunity – so why not bet your whole bank?
The reason not to bet the bank is that there is rarely an absolute certainty.
Every team loses sometime, and this could be that certain favourite’s bad day.
Bet with your agreed stake, not your whole bank budget.
Trying to justify poor decisions to yourself by proving that you could and should still win is a further danger to your bank balance.
For example, you’ve played a hunch that in a big battle your Arsenal can win, but at half time they’re one goal down.
- “Just the time and odds to double the bet,” you boldly think.
As the game draws on, Arsenal go two goals down.
Now you think:
- “Fantastic odds, I’ll just double up again.”
Chasing losses is a complex that makes you believe your luck must change for the better.
You may be unable to accept that a betting decision was wrong, or you may just feel compelled to recoup losses by staking good money after bad.
This can lead to an obsession that you must beat the odds – at any cost – and you end up simply repeating your failure.
Such behaviour generally only drains the bank by wasting money that could have been placed more wisely.
Gaining Good Practice
When starting out as a novice gambler, it’s important not to become tempted by the distractions of bad practice.
At first, learning skills is more important than making profits.
By following a discipline and establishing good habits, you will lay the groundwork for future success.
Once you find you can make a profit by betting small stakes, you can gradually increase the size of your bets and the corresponding rewards.
Don’t rush this learning process.
Take time to develop your skills.
Setting The Stakes
It’s all too easy to think you have a safety-first plan only to ignore it when you get emotionally involved.
- “Man U might be 1-0 down now, but the final score is certain to be quite different.”
Following a live match provides excitement.
But this may lead to over-staking your bets.
If you fail to follow your own stake guidelines you risk damaging your bankroll.
What’s more, you lose the discipline that’s needed to become a professional gambler.
Always stick to suitable staking rules – they can protect you from impulsive decisions.
Choosing a Stake Plan
There are several well-known staking systems that have been invented over the years.
Those such as Martingale or Fibonacci claim that progressively increasing stakes can recover losses once your enlarged stake eventually wins.
Steer clear of progressive systems offering guaranteed profits such as these as they have been proved to be mathematically faulty.
A sensible way of selecting the size of stakes you place is to decide on a percentage of your bankroll.
By doing this before placing bets, and sticking with your plan, you can remain in control.
When you feel more confident it’s possible to “ratchet up” your stake.
For example, if your chosen percentage is 2% of your running bank, the stake amount placed will increase as your bank increases following wins.
In this adventurous method, when you get a loss you can maintain the ratchet by not reducing your stake.
Simply use your previous stake until wins have increased your bank to a new high point.
Your approach to money management may vary with the number of bets you intend to place (matches you bet on) as well as with the size of your bank.
If your bankroll is small, you will likely choose a larger percentage stake per bet, to make your returns worthwhile.
With a large betting bank, your percentage should be smaller, to protect against a run of losses.
What stakes should I play?
By now, you know the risks of betting your whole bank on a single “certainty”.
Nothing is certain in betting, and you don’t want to suffer a bank-size loss.
So how much of your bank can you afford to risk?
If you intend to practice betting regularly for income, then the amount you should risk per bet is surprisingly small.
Risking a half or a quarter of your bank is the same psychology as risking 100% – it’s not a long-term strategy.
Even 10% of your bank per stake could be very damaging if you run into a losing streak.
Betting strategy, current odds, and your strike rate will all affect decisions.
But keeping your stake to a maximum 5% of your bank is the simplest plan.
If you know you will also be betting more heavily at the weekend, you might reduce this to 1-3%.
Using such small stakes may not seem the quickest path to wealth.
However, if you need to start from the basics, practising bankroll discipline is vital before stepping up to bigger bankrolls and bigger stakes.
Keeping a tally of your bets and odds will help you reflect on performance.
If you feel that sticking to small stakes is too frustrating and slow, it’s a sign you’ll come unstuck managing a large bankroll with the additional stress a losing streak can bring.
Trial staking plan
Now you can be introduced to a staking system that has proved to work well.
Winnings are based largely on odds, as your stakes are deliberately limited.
Sample Odds/Liablility Table
|Odds||Laying Liability||Backing Stake|
|3.00 - 2.60||2%||0.50%|
|2.58 - 2.30||1.50%||0.75%|
|2.28 - 1.70||1%||1%|
|1.69 - 1.40||0.75%||1.50%|
It starts with a bank of €100 and a maximum stake of 2%.
Staying within odds laid against of 3.00 reduces risk.
And backing bets of no less than 1.40 raises some potential for profit.
The maximum stake per bet, therefore, is €2.
Though, often only €1 or €1.50 may be worth putting at risk.
This may seem a very small scale scheme of betting, when you may win no more than 70 cents or €1.20 on a bet.
But it is much safer than risking large amounts that you do not want to lose.
This strategy ensures you remain comfortable with your betting.
Essentially, following this scheme will teach you the habits you need to learn for good money management.
If you can maintain this discipline and achieve steady profits with a €100 bank and small stakes, then you will know how to do the same with a larger bank.
Simply achieving 15-25% profit per month, as a minimum, will give you the proof that with careful management football betting can pay.
However, there is a big difference between betting with a €100 bank and a bankroll worth €1000.
Even when applying the same minimum stakes, a 5% loss of €5 will be multiplied to €50.
Dealing with losing streaks also becomes significantly harder.
But sticking with this safe staking method makes sure you don’t suffer big percentage losses.
Eventually, if you were to scale up to a monthly €10,000 bank, making a 20% profit payout would deliver €2000 per month.
You wouldn’t complain with that!
However, such prospects are likely to be far from where you are now.
The only safe way to progress to higher levels is to develop stage by stage.
Rushing in to betting with high stakes courts disaster.
Don’t go beyond the stakes you feel comfortable with or you could lose significant sums.
What will a 20% monthly profit over the football season deliver?
Yes, that’s a 500%+ profit over the 10-month season!
(Compare that with the interest from saving at a bank.)
Starting with a small €100 budget, once confident you can make profits you can increase this to a €1000 bank.
Then, if that betting season is successful, the following year you could start with a €10,000 bank.
It’s not easy to maintain such profits consistently, but it is possible.
And it’s up to you.
Dealing With Losing Streaks
Generally, you bet on teams to win or lose.
Or even on goal difference between final scores.
How often do you consider matches ending in 0-0 draws?
In fact, the probability of a goalless draw is around 8%.
Premier League goalless draw 2015/2016
That gives no-win/no-score matches odds of 12.5.
Consider this screenshot of Serie A from October 16, 2011.
Of the 7 matches played, 5 ended as 0-0 draws!
Anyone betting on Serie A goals that day would certainly end up with a headache.
Selecting just 3 or 4 of those goalless matches with a 5% stake at odds of 2.5 would deliver a serious dent to a bank balance.
That is an extreme example, but the facts are that no-one who bets is exempt from experiencing losing runs.
You can be faced with all kinds of misfortunes… disallowing of honest goals, doubtful penalties, unjustified red cards, injured players… and many other unwanted and seemingly unfair obstacles that can follow one after another.
When your day involves seven confident bets, and five have lost, you will begin to wonder why you bother researching matches at all.
You will begin to question whether you are even capable of making a profit.
You may even think of giving up.
It’s at these times that many dangers appear.
But changing your money management plan, chasing losses with increased stakes, multiplying the number of bets you open… are desperate measures that won’t improve the balance in your bank.
If you are under stress and feel tempted to lose your self-discipline, the best answer is to walk away from your computer.
Take a rest and calm yourself before you do any real harm.
Losses are part of betting.
They are certainly hard to swallow, but they will still occur.
Understand that the gambler’s task includes knowing how to handle losses without losing discipline or self-control.
Calculating Losing Streaks
Being able to estimate the potential occurrence and length of losing streaks will help you manage their impact.
The formula below will provide you with this function.
To use this formula you need:
- A scientific calculator to perform the logarithm function log(x)
- Your strike rate (SR) in decimal terms
- The number (n) of your bets
Longest losing sequence formula
log (n) / -log (1 – SR)
SR: 50% = 0.5
n: 100 bets
log (100) / -log (1 – 0.5) = 2 / 0.3010299956639812 = 7
As you see, if placing 100 bets with a system that gives a 50% (0.5) strike rate, the longest losing run would be about 7 bets.
What would be the impact if you placed 10% of your bank on each of those losing bets?
Obviously, if these were consecutive losses, you would experience a 70% loss to your bankroll.
|Strike Rate (%)||Max. Losing Run|
This is why it is important to place stakes carefully – as a glance at the table below shows.
It reveals that even when placing a high number of bets with a 50% strike rate you will still run into a string of 10 losing bets.
Two examples from this system show dramatically how fortunes can change.
The Over 3.5 value goals system, in November 2015, recorded 12 out 16 bets winning on a single day.
This is an impressive result considering average odds for all 16 was just over 3.
|Country||Competition||Date||Home||Score||Away||Average %||Won / Lost|
|Lithuania||A Lyga||22/11/2015||Utenis Utena||3 - 2||Siauliai||58.89%||Won|
|Mexico||Liga MX||22/11/2015||Toluca||3 - 1||Monterrey||55.28%||Won|
|Thailand||Premier League||22/11/2015||Navy||0 - 3||Ratchaburi||49.17%||Lost|
|Lithuania||A Lyga||22/11/2015||Suduva||1 - 3||Zalgiris||48.89%||Won|
|Switzerland||Super League||22/11/2015||Fc Zurich||5 - 3||Lugano||48.33%||Won|
|Qatar||Stars League||22/11/2015||Qatar SC||0 - 9||Al Rayyan||48.33%||Won|
|Wales||Premier League||22/11/2015||Port Talbot||0 - 1||The New Saints||48.05%||Lost|
|Slovenia||Prva Liga||22/11/2015||CM Celje||1 - 0||Rudar Velenje||46.11%||Lost|
|Paraguay||Primera Division||22/11/2015||Guarani||4 - 2||Cerro Porteño||45.55%||Won|
|Bolivia||Primera Division||22/11/2015||The Strongest||2 - 3||Bolivar||44.72%||Won|
|Norway||NM Cupen||22/11/2015||Rosenborg||2 - 0||Sarpsborg 08||43.33%||Lost|
|Malta||Premier League||22/11/2015||Hibernians||3 - 2||Balzan Youths||42.78%||Won|
|Costa Rica||Primera Division||22/11/2015||Santos de Guapiles||0 - 4||Deportivo Saprissa||41.95%||Won|
|Qatar||Stars League||22/11/2015||Lekhwiya||3 - 2||Al Khor||41.67%||Won|
|Mexico||Liga MX||22/11/2015||Jaguares Chiapas||3 - 2||Pachuca||41.39%||Won|
|Qatar||Stars League||22/11/2015||Al Kharitiyath||2 - 4||Al Sadd||41.11%||Won|
Yet, in the following month of December the odds bit back.
Two runs of losing bets, first of 8 bets then by 7 bets, knocked punters off target in a big way.
|Country||Competition||Date||Home||Score||Away||Average %||Won / Lost|
|Northern Ireland||NIFL Premiership||26/12/2015||Coleraine||2 - 1||Ballymena United||42.5%||Lost|
|England||National League South||26/12/2015||Bishop´s Stortford||2 - 1||St. Albans City||41.94%||Lost|
|England||National League North||26/12/2015||Brackley Town||1 - 2||Corby Town||41.39%||Lost|
|England||National League||26/12/2015||Welling United||1 - 2||Dover Athletic||41.11%||Lost|
|United Arab Emirates||Arabian Gulf League||26/12/2015||Al-Dhafra||2 - 1||Al-Jazira||41.11%||Lost|
|England||National League South||26/12/2015||Gosport Borough||2 - 1||Havant & Waterlooville||41.11%||Lost|
|England||National League South||26/12/2015||Eastbourne Borough||1 - 1||Whitehawk||40.55%||Lost|
|Japan||Emperors Cup||26/12/2015||Vissel Kobe||0 - 3||Urawa Reds||40.55%||Lost|
|Scotland||Premiership||26/12/2015||Ross County||5 - 2||Dundee FC||40%||Won|
|Turkey||Super Lig||27/12/2015||Bursaspor||2 - 1||Mersin Idmanyurdu||46.95%||Lost|
|England||League One||28/12/2015||Gillingham FC||1 - 0||Colchester United||60.83%||Lost|
|England||National League North||28/12/2015||Stalybridge Celtic||1 - 1||Stockport County||53.33%||Lost|
|England||National League||28/12/2015||Halifax Town||2 - 0||Wrexham||52.22%||Lost|
|England||League Two||28/12/2015||Cambridge Utd||2 - 1||Barnet||52.22%||Lost|
|England||National League||28/12/2015||Southport||2 - 1||Barrow||49.45%||Lost|
|England||National League North||28/12/2015||United of Manchester||1 - 1||Hednesford Town||48.05%||Lost|
These statistics repeat the importance of understanding both winning and losing streaks.
Many lose patience with their systems as soon as they experience losing runs.
Without proper understanding, they begin a vain search for systems that will always avoid losses and only deliver wins.
Recognising and preparing yourself to face the inevitable difficult times is the only way to deal with the issue of losing streaks.
Calculate for yourself the likelihood of losing runs and allow for them in your staking plan.
Otherwise, if you keep your percentage too high, and meet a bad run, it could decimate your bank.
The Power of Success!
Much has been said about losses.
They are a fact of life and it’s best that you know this.
But they aren’t the reason you started the betting game.
So, let’s take time to celebrate success!
The successes you’ve achieved are proof of your ability and your confirmation that betting works.
To remind yourself of your most satisfactory wins, why not make them permanently visible at your workroom?
Take screenshots of your most rewarding market bets, make a compilation, and print it out.
Each time you have a “winning day” that you’re proud of, print a record of the results, and pin it to the wall over your desk.
Surround your workroom with evidence of success.
Now, when the odds are running against and you’re feeling defeated by a day of losses, raise your eyes to your collection of personal achievements.
They tell you what you’ve won before, and will reassure that you can do the same again.
Stick to your money management principles.
Don’t chase your losses.
Don’t raise stakes just to be greedy.
Remain tolerant and self-disciplined and rewards will come.